\begin{table}[htbp!] \centering \footnotesize \begin{threeparttable} \caption{Forecasts summary} \begin{tabular} {l c c c c c} \toprule & Observed & \multicolumn{4}{c}{Forecasts (Mean \% \footnotesize{[SD]})} \\ \cmidrule(lr){2-2} \cmidrule(lr){3-6} 
& & (1) Overall & (2) Nudge unit staff & (3) Reseachers & (4) Government workers \\
Category & (\%) & \footnotesize{($ N=118$)} & \footnotesize{($ N=19$)} & \footnotesize{($ N=67$)} & \footnotesize{($ N=14$)} \\ \hline
Baseline adoption rate & 27.40 & 32.47 \footnotesize{[19.06]} & 37.16 \footnotesize{[20.64]} & 31.91 \footnotesize{[19.16]} & 32.00 \footnotesize{[20.40]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By sign and significance:}} \\
\hspace{1em}Positive \& significant & 30.30 & 46.58 \footnotesize{[23.66]} & 48.00 \footnotesize{[23.91]} & 46.49 \footnotesize{[23.13]} & 44.29 \footnotesize{[28.01]} \\
\hspace{1em}Positive \& insignificant & 25.00 & 23.22 \footnotesize{[20.27]} & 34.84 \footnotesize{[23.51]} & 21.31 \footnotesize{[18.59]} & 23.29 \footnotesize{[22.61]} \\
\hspace{1em}Zero or negative & 25.00 & 11.06 \footnotesize{[16.21]} & 17.47 \footnotesize{[19.25]} & 10.43 \footnotesize{[16.35]} & 12.93 \footnotesize{[17.40]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By effect size:}} \\
\hspace{1em}High third & 37.50 & 49.31 \footnotesize{[24.81]} & 54.26 \footnotesize{[24.80]} & 48.85 \footnotesize{[24.15]} & 45.43 \footnotesize{[30.89]} \\
\hspace{1em}Middle third & 28.00 & 31.61 \footnotesize{[19.60]} & 40.32 \footnotesize{[23.51]} & 29.57 \footnotesize{[16.95]} & 32.29 \footnotesize{[25.08]} \\
\hspace{1em}Low third & 16.67 & 12.94 \footnotesize{[15.42]} & 18.16 \footnotesize{[18.39]} & 12.60 \footnotesize{[15.80]} & 11.57 \footnotesize{[11.88]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By staff retention:}} \\
\hspace{1em}With original staff & 32.61 & 43.75 \footnotesize{[22.64]} & 48.26 \footnotesize{[26.59]} & 42.13 \footnotesize{[20.74]} & 44.07 \footnotesize{[28.02]} \\
\hspace{1em}Without original staff & 18.52 & 18.45 \footnotesize{[16.31]} & 24.32 \footnotesize{[15.14]} & 17.51 \footnotesize{[16.33]} & 19.71 \footnotesize{[18.59]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By state capacity (proxied by 2020 city population size):}} \\
\hspace{1em}Above median & 32.43 & 33.26 \footnotesize{[19.62]} & 40.16 \footnotesize{[22.93]} & 32.07 \footnotesize{[17.76]} & 31.79 \footnotesize{[24.12]} \\
\hspace{1em}Below median & 22.22 & 32.21 \footnotesize{[18.67]} & 35.84 \footnotesize{[19.25]} & 32.15 \footnotesize{[18.89]} & 29.50 \footnotesize{[20.26]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By What Works Cities certification:}} \\
\hspace{1em}Certified & 29.55 & 41.69 \footnotesize{[21.23]} & 45.26 \footnotesize{[22.86]} & 40.06 \footnotesize{[20.37]} & 42.93 \footnotesize{[24.94]} \\
\hspace{1em}Not certified & 24.14 & 24.06 \footnotesize{[17.90]} & 32.42 \footnotesize{[20.61]} & 22.58 \footnotesize{[17.21]} & 22.14 \footnotesize{[17.16]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By pre-existing or new communication:}} \\
\hspace{1em}New & 11.54 & 29.79 \footnotesize{[20.42]} & 36.32 \footnotesize{[22.87]} & 29.48 \footnotesize{[19.48]} & 25.50 \footnotesize{[19.00]} \\
\hspace{1em}Pre-existing & 66.67 & 41.25 \footnotesize{[25.43]} & 45.63 \footnotesize{[26.68]} & 37.78 \footnotesize{[23.11]} & 47.71 \footnotesize{[28.97]} \\ \\ \multicolumn{6}{l}{\textit{By behavioral mechanism:}} \\
\hspace{1em}Simplification & 33.33 & 42.42 \footnotesize{[22.06]} & 51.16 \footnotesize{[24.34]} & 40.21 \footnotesize{[20.56]} & 41.00 \footnotesize{[25.45]} \\
\hspace{1em}Personal motivaton & 19.05 & 30.14 \footnotesize{[19.30]} & 35.84 \footnotesize{[20.55]} & 28.37 \footnotesize{[18.35]} & 26.79 \footnotesize{[19.42]} \\
\hspace{1em}Social cues & 24.39 & 29.83 \footnotesize{[20.97]} & 34.74 \footnotesize{[23.05]} & 28.81 \footnotesize{[19.58]} & 30.36 \footnotesize{[22.01]} \\
\bottomrule \end{tabular} \label{tab:sumstats_forecasts} \begin{tablenotes} \scriptsize \item \end{tablenotes} \end{threeparttable} \end{table}
